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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks November 2007
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

              GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - NOVEMBER 2007

          !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!

*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
  from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.  In a few instances, information from
  warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
  The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
  pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
  when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
  issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
  Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
  (PAGASA).  A special thanks to Michael for his efforts.


                              Systems Tracked
                              ---------------

   Typhoon PEIPAH (21W / 0721 / KABAYAN)               02 - 10 Nov
   Tropical Storm TAPAH (22W / 0722)                   10 - 13 Nov
   Tropical Storm LANDO-Typhoon HAGIBIS (23W / 0724)   18 - 28 Nov
   Typhoon MITAG (24W / 0723 / MINA)                   20 - 27 Nov
   Tropical Depression (25W)                           26 - 27 Nov
   Tropical Storm (26W)                                28 - 29 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: PEIPAH                Cyclone Number: 21W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: KABAYAN     JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0721

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 02 0600  18.0 N  132.0 E  1004         25  JMA bulletins
07 NOV 02 1200  18.0 N  132.0 E  1006         25
07 NOV 02 1800  18.4 N  130.5 E  1004         30
07 NOV 03 0000  18.3 N  129.4 E  1006         30
07 NOV 03 0600  17.7 N  128.4 E  1004   25    30
07 NOV 03 1200  17.6 N  127.4 E  1002   35    35  JMA: 18.2N/127.8E
07 NOV 03 1800  17.4 N  125.8 E   994   45    45  JMA: 17.9N/126.1E
07 NOV 04 0000  16.9 N  124.8 E   992   55    50
07 NOV 04 0600  16.8 N  123.4 E   985   60    55
07 NOV 04 1200  16.8 N  122.5 E   980   65    60
07 NOV 04 1800  17.2 N  120.9 E   985   65    55  Inland in Luzon   
07 NOV 05 0000  17.6 N  119.8 E   985   55    55
07 NOV 05 0600  17.7 N  119.2 E   985   55    55  Over South China Sea
07 NOV 05 1200  17.9 N  118.8 E   985   55    55
07 NOV 05 1800  18.0 N  118.8 E   985   65    55
07 NOV 06 0000  18.4 N  118.6 E   980   70    60
07 NOV 06 0600  18.6 N  118.4 E   970   75    70
07 Nov 06 1200  18.7 N  118.1 E   970   75    70
07 NOV 06 1800  18.4 N  117.7 E   970   70    70
07 NOV 07 0000  18.3 N  117.1 E   975   70    65  JMA: 18.6N/117.7E
07 NOV 07 0600  18.5 N  116.7 E   980   65    60
07 NOV 07 1200  17.7 N  115.6 E   990   50    50
07 NOV 07 1800  17.1 N  114.6 E   992   40    45
07 NOV 08 0000  16.7 N  114.0 E   994   30    40 
07 NOV 08 0600  16.3 N  113.5 E   994   30    40
07 NOV 08 1200  15.8 N  112.8 E   998   30    40  JMA: 16.4N/113.0E
07 NOV 08 1800  15.4 N  112.1 E  1002   30    35  JMA: 16.3N/112.7E
07 NOV 09 0000  13.7 N  111.6 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 15.0N/113.0E
07 NOV 09 0600  12.7 N  111.0 E  1004   25    25
07 NOV 09 1200  11.9 N  110.6 E  1004   25    25  Final JTWC warning
07 NOV 09 1800  11.9 N  110.4 E  1004         25  JTWC satellite fixes
07 NOV 10 0000  11.5 N  109.8 E  1006         25
07 NOV 10 0600  11.5 N  108.5 E  1006         25  Inland in Vietnam
07 NOV 10 1200  11.6 N  106.9 E  1008         20  JMA: 12.0N/108.0E
07 NOV 10 1800  12.3 N  104.3 E               15

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: TAPAH                 Cyclone Number: 22W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0722

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 10 1800  19.0 N  140.0 E  1004         25  JMA warnings
07 NOV 11 0000  20.2 N  140.6 E  1004         30
07 NOV 11 0600  20.0 N  139.8 E  1002         30
07 NOV 11 1200  20.3 N  139.7 E  1002   25    30  JMA: 20.5N/140.5E
07 NOV 11 1800  21.1 N  139.8 E  1000   30    30  JMA: 20.6N/140.6E
07 NOV 12 0000  22.2 N  141.4 E   998   35    35  JMA: 22.2N/142.3E
07 NOV 12 0600  23.1 N  142.8 E   996   35    35  JMA: 23.1N/143.4E
07 NOV 12 1200  23.6 N  144.5 E   996   35    35
07 NOV 12 1800  24.2 N  146.2 E   998   30    35  JMA: 23.7N/146.2E
07 NOV 13 0000  24.0 N  147.0 E  1000         30

Note: JMA listed a tropical depression near 18N/143E at 10/0000 UTC, but
no reference was made to the system on the next two warning cycles.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: HAGIBIS               Cyclone Number: 23W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: LANDO       JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0724

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 18 0600   8.0 N  128.0 E  1004         25  JMA bulletin
07 NOV 18 1200   8.0 N  129.0 E  1004         25
07 NOV 18 1800   9.2 N  127.1 E  1002   30    25  JMA: 8.0N/128.0E
07 NOV 19 0000   9.5 N  126.5 E  1004   30    25  Just off NE Mindanao
07 NOV 19 0600  10.5 N  125.2 E   997   30    35  PAGASA: 10.2N/124.4E
07 NOV 19 1200  10.6 N  123.5 E   997   30    35  10-min MSW from PAGASA
07 NOV 19 1800  10.4 N  122.2 E   997   35    35  Over southern Panay I.
07 NOV 20 0000   9.1 N  120.8 E   997   35    35  PAGASA: 10.5N/121.4E
07 NOV 20 0600   9.5 N  119.4 E   997   35    35  PAGASA: 10.0N/119.8E
07 NOV 20 1200   9.5 N  118.9 E   997   35    35  Near central Palawan I.
07 NOV 20 1800   9.6 N  117.6 E  1000   40    35  CP & 10-min MSW frm JMA
07 NOV 21 0000   9.5 N  116.1 E  1000   50    35  In South China Sea
07 NOV 21 0600   9.6 N  115.0 E   990   50    50
07 NOV 21 1200   9.6 N  113.9 E   985   60    55
07 NOV 21 1800   9.8 N  113.0 E   980   65    55
07 NOV 22 0000  10.4 N  113.1 E   975   70    65  Relocation
07 NOV 22 0600  10.7 N  112.3 E   970   75    70  JMA: 10.4N/112.5E
07 NOV 22 1200  10.9 N  111.9 E   970   80    70
07 NOV 22 1800  11.2 N  111.3 E   970   85    70
07 NOV 23 0000  11.5 N  111.0 E   970   75    70
07 NOV 23 0600  11.7 N  110.9 E   975   75    65
07 NOV 23 1200  11.9 N  111.2 E   975   70    65  JMA: 11.5N/110.5E
07 NOV 23 1800  12.0 N  110.5 E   980   60    60  JMA: 11.3N/110.4E
07 NOV 24 0000  11.7 N  111.0 E   985   55    55
07 NOV 24 0600  12.0 N  111.4 E   985   55    55  JMA: 11.6N/111.6E
07 NOV 24 1200  12.0 N  111.9 E   990   50    50  JMA: 11.6N/111.8E
07 NOV 24 1800  12.0 N  112.2 E   990   40    50
07 NOV 25 0000  11.9 N  112.9 E   990   35    50  See Note
07 NOV 25 0600  11.6 N  113.3 E   990   35    50
07 NOV 25 1200  11.5 N  113.7 E   990   40    50
07 NOV 25 1800  11.5 N  114.0 E   990   35    50
07 NOV 26 0000  11.3 N  114.6 E   992   30    50  JMA: 11.1N/115.0E
07 NOV 26 0600  11.6 N  115.5 E   994   30    45
07 NOV 26 1200  11.9 N  116.8 E   994   30    45  JMA: 11.4N/116.4E
07 NOV 26 1800  11.8 N  118.0 E   994   25    45  JMA: 11.5N/117.7E
07 NOV 27 0000  11.9 N  119.2 E   994   25    45  Near Calamian group
07 NOV 27 0600  12.7 N  120.8 E   994         35  JMA warnings
07 NOV 27 1200  13.6 N  123.0 E   996         35  Near Naga city, Luzon
07 NOV 27 1800  14.7 N  124.5 E   996         35  In Philippine Sea
07 NOV 28 0000  15.1 N  125.0 E   998         35
07 NOV 28 0600  15.0 N  126.0 E  1002         30

Note: A very unusual situation, with JMA's 10-min avg MSW being so very
much higher than JTWC's 1-min avg MSW.  According to Dr. Karl Hoarau,
the satellite imagery yielded a Data-T number of 2.5, but the CI was
3.0, or 45 kts (1-min avg).  In Karl's opinion, JMA was holding the 
CI-number too high.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: MITAG                 Cyclone Number: 24W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: MINA        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0723

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 20 0000  11.4 N  139.3 E  1004         30  JMA warning
07 NOV 20 0600  11.6 N  137.4 E  1002   30    30  JMA: 12.6N/137.2E
07 NOV 20 1200  12.6 N  137.1 E  1000   30    35  JMA: 13.0N/136.5E
07 NOV 20 1800  13.6 N  135.1 E  1000   35    35
07 NOV 21 0000  13.8 N  133.8 E   996   40    40
07 NOV 21 0600  14.2 N  132.3 E   992   45    45
07 NOV 21 1200  14.2 N  131.7 E   985   55    55
07 NOV 21 1800  14.4 N  130.8 E   975   65    60
07 NOV 22 0000  14.6 N  129.5 E   975   70    65
07 NOV 22 0600  14.5 N  128.6 E   960   80    75
07 NOV 22 1200  14.1 N  127.7 E   955   85    80
07 NOV 22 1800  14.0 N  126.9 E   955   90    80
07 NOV 23 0000  13.6 N  126.7 E   955   90    80
07 NOV 23 0600  13.6 N  126.5 E   960   95    75
07 NOV 23 1200  13.9 N  126.6 E   960   95    75
07 NOV 23 1800  14.2 N  126.3 E   960   95    75
07 NOV 24 0000  14.4 N  125.9 E   960   95    75
07 NOV 24 0600  14.9 N  125.8 E   960   85    75  JMA: 14.5N/125.8E
07 NOV 24 1200  15.1 N  125.9 E   960   85    75  JMA: 14.8N/125.3E
07 NOV 24 1800  15.2 N  125.1 E   965   85    70
07 NOV 25 0000  15.5 N  124.3 E   965   85    70  JMA: 15.1N/124.7E
07 NOV 25 0600  16.5 N  123.9 E   965   80    70  JMA: 15.9N/124.0E
07 NOV 25 1200  17.1 N  123.3 E   965   75    70  JMA: 16.3N/123.4E
07 NOV 25 1800  17.9 N  122.1 E   965   75    70  JMA: 17.6N/122.5E
07 NOV 26 0000  18.6 N  121.0 E   975   75    65  On northern Luzon coast
07 NOV 26 0600  19.3 N  120.5 E   980   65    60  In Luzon Strait
07 NOV 26 1200  20.3 N  120.6 E   980   65    60
07 NOV 26 1800  21.1 N  121.0 E   980   55    60  JMA: 20.6N/121.1E
07 NOV 27 0000  20.8 N  121.5 E   985   45    55  JMA: 21.5N/122.0E
07 NOV 27 0600  19.8 N  122.9 E   992   40    45  JMA: 21.2N/122.7E
07 NOV 27 1200  20.0 N  124.3 E   994   35    40
07 NOV 27 1800  20.5 N  125.7 E  1000   30    30

Note: The JTWC position (in the tabulated track) at 25/1800 UTC places
the center of Mitag/Mina on the extreme northeastern Luzon coast
north-northeast of Tuguegarao, whereas the concurrent JMA coordinates
place the center about 30 nm southeast of this position and east of
the coastline.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 25W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 26 0600  15.8 N  132.5 E         25
07 NOV 26 1200  16.2 N  131.6 E         25
07 NOV 26 1800  17.0 N  130.5 E         25
07 NOV 27 0000  17.9 N  130.1 E         25
07 NOV 27 0600  21.3 N  130.1 E         25
07 NOV 27 1200  22.5 N  130.8 E         25
07 NOV 27 1800  24.7 N  131.6 E         25

Note: Normally I don't include tracks for tropical depressions unless
there is evidence of 30-kt winds (1-min avg).  However, for TD-25W,
SAB rendered Dvorak ratings of T2.0/2.0 late on the 26th and early
on the 27th, so the system possibly produced 30-kt winds at some point.
JMA did not reference this system in their High Seas bulletins, even as
a low-pressure area.  According to Dr. Karl Hoarau, microwave imagery
clearly indicated the presence of a LLCC.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 26W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 28 0300  19.5 N  136.6 E         25        SAB satellite bulletin
07 NOV 28 0600  22.8 N  136.8 E         25        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 28 1200  24.6 N  137.7 E         30        JTWC wrng/See Note
07 NOV 28 1800  26.7 N  138.4 E         35        
07 NOV 29 0000  28.7 N  139.8 E         35        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 29 0600  29.6 N  141.5 E         35
07 NOV 29 1200  30.5 N  145.6 E         30        JTWC & SAB sat bulletin

Note: JTWC issued only two warnings on this system, at 28/1200 and 1800
UTC, and their highest MSW was only 25 kts.  Very unusual, given that
on the first warning the translational speed was 29 kts!  Karl Hoarau
estimates that the MSW reached 35 kts at 28/1800 UTC, and I have followed
Karl here.  Indeed, the Dvorak estimates from JTWC's own satellite 
analyst were at T2.5/2.5 at 28/1130, 1730 and 2330 UTC, and SAB's 
Dvorak rating reached T3.0/3.0 at 28/1430 UTC.  There was ample evidence
from satellite imagery, plus the rapid forward motion, to believe that
this system was a tropical storm.   JMA never elevated the system above
weak tropical depression status.

*************************************************************************

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some information may
  have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
  bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR (06B)               10 - 16 Nov                              
                                                     
*************************************************************************

Storm Name: SIDR                  Cyclone Number: 06B     Basin: NIO


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 10 1800  10.0 N   92.7 E         25        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 11 0000  10.1 N   92.4 E         30
07 NOV 11 0600  10.0 N   92.3 E         35        First JTWC warning
07 NOV 11 1200  10.1 N   91.9 E         35        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 11 1800  10.4 N   91.4 E         45
07 NOV 12 0000  10.2 N   90.8 E         50        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 0600  10.8 N   90.4 E         55        Officially named 'Sidr'
07 NOV 12 1200  11.0 N   90.3 E         75        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 1800  11.6 N   90.0 E        105
07 NOV 13 0000  12.0 N   89.9 E        110        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 13 0600  12.5 N   89.8 E        115
07 NOV 13 1200  13.0 N   89.5 E        115        IMD & JTWC position
07 NOV 13 1800  13.7 N   89.5 E        115
07 NOV 14 0000  14.3 N   89.6 E        115
07 NOV 14 0600  15.0 N   89.4 E        120
07 NOV 14 1200  15.7 N   89.3 E        130
07 NOV 14 1800  16.6 N   89.3 E        130
07 NOV 15 0000  17.8 N   89.2 E        130
07 NOV 15 0600  19.3 N   89.3 E        135        Karl Hoarau: 140 kts
07 NOV 15 1200  20.9 N   89.5 E        130
07 NOV 15 1800  22.8 N   90.3 E        105        Inland
07 NOV 16 0000  25.0 N   91.9 E         60
07 NOV 16 0300  25.5 N   92.2 E         35        IMD: 24.5N/91.5E

Note: Following is some information and analysis from Dr. Karl Hoarau.

   Date/Time       IMD's MSW       JTWC's MSW     Karl's MSW
--------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 11/1200 UTC      30 kts           35 kts         40 kts
      /1800 UTC      30 kts           45 kts         45 kts
Nov 12/0000 UTC      35 kts           65 kts *       55 kts
      /0600 UTC      40 kts           70 kts *       70 kts
      /1200 UTC      55 kts           75 kts         95 kts
      /1800 UTC      65 kts          105 kts        120 kts
Nov 13/0000 UTC      90 kts          110 kts        125 kts

* - JTWC's MSW for these times were 50 and 55 kts, respectively.  In his
    e-mail, Karl noted this, but does not specify where he obtained the
    values of 65 and 70 kts for those times.   Possibly they came from
    the JMV file, which is a working "best track".

Also, Karl states that he estimates that Sidr reached a peak of 140 kts
around 0500-0700 UTC on 15 November.  NOAA-18 data at 0655 UTC showed a
warm pinhole eye of +9.5 C (1-km resolution) in a White ring (-70 to
-75 C).  The MET and PT did agree with the DT.    

*************************************************************************

SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion
  Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin.  The 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The center position coordinates from
  JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the
  Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
  or more.


                             Systems Tracked
                             ---------------

   Severe Tropical Storm BONGWE (MFR-03 / 04S)         17 - 24 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: BONGWE                Cyclone Number: 04S     Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 03

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 17 2100   5.9 S   75.0 E         30        SAB satellite bulletin
07 NOV 18 0300   7.1 S   75.0 E         35                    "
07 NOV 18 0600   7.9 S   76.5 E         35        First JTWC warning
07 NOV 18 1200   8.3 S   75.5 E   999         25  Locally 30 kts
07 NOV 18 1800   8.8 S   76.3 E   997   45    30
07 NOV 19 0000   9.7 S   76.4 E   996         30
07 NOV 19 0600   9.9 S   77.2 E   994   55    40
07 NOV 19 1200  10.3 S   77.1 E   987         50
07 NOV 19 1800  11.0 S   76.6 E   987   65    50  JTWC: 10.6S/76.7E
07 NOV 20 0000  10.9 S   75.9 E   980         55
07 NOV 20 0600  11.6 S   75.5 E   980   55    55
07 NOV 20 1200  11.6 S   74.0 E   985         50
07 NOV 20 1800  11.9 S   73.2 E   988   55    45  JTWC: 12.5S/73.0E
07 NOV 21 0000  13.1 S   72.3 E   992         40
07 NOV 21 0600  12.9 S   71.9 E   990   45    40  JTWC: 12.7S/71.5E
07 NOV 21 1200  13.5 S   71.1 E   987         45
07 NOV 21 1800  13.7 S   70.2 E   987   50    45
07 NOV 22 0000  13.9 S   69.8 E   984         50
07 NOV 22 0600  14.0 S   70.0 E   976   55    60  Relocation
07 NOV 22 1200  14.0 S   69.8 E   980         55
07 NOV 22 1800  13.8 S   69.7 E   980   55    55
07 NOV 23 0000  13.8 S   69.3 E   988         45
07 NOV 23 0600  13.7 S   68.8 E   991   45    40
07 NOV 23 1200  13.1 S   68.0 E   995         35
07 NOV 23 1800  13.0 S   67.3 E   997   30    30  Locally 35 kts S semi
07 NOV 24 0000  13.0 S   66.7 E  1000         25  Locally 30 kts S semi
07 NOV 24 0600  12.7 S   66.2 E  1000         25             "
07 NOV 24 1200  12.9 S   65.5 E  1000         25             "

*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western
  Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory.    The 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by
  the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The center position coordinates
  from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and
  annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general
  amounted to 40-50 nm or more.


                             Systems Tracked
                             ---------------

   Severe Tropical Storm LEE-ARIEL (03S / MFR-02)      13 - 22 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: LEE-ARIEL             Cyclone Number: 03S     Basin: AUW/SWI
(First name assigned by BoM Perth - MFR Tropical Disburbance Number: 02)

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 13 0600   5.6 S   92.8 E  1002         20
07 NOV 13 1200   5.9 S   92.2 E  1002         20
07 NOV 13 1800   6.4 S   91.6 E  1000         25
07 NOV 14 0000   7.8 S   92.2 E   996         30  Relocated
07 NOV 14 0600   8.5 S   92.0 E   996         30
07 NOV 14 1200   9.1 S   91.4 E   992         35
07 NOV 14 1800   9.2 S   91.2 E   992   35    35
07 NOV 15 0000  10.1 S   90.5 E   984         50
07 NOV 15 0600  10.9 S   90.1 E   984   55    50
07 NOV 15 1200  11.5 S   89.6 E   984         50  MFR warnings
07 NOV 15 1800  11.6 S   88.9 E   984   65    50  JTWC: 12.3S/89.2E
07 NOV 16 0000  11.7 S   88.8 E   984         50
07 NOV 16 0600  11.6 S   88.4 E   980   65    50
07 NOV 16 1200  11.6 S   87.8 E   984         50
07 NOV 16 1800  11.8 S   87.3 E   986   55    50
07 NOV 17 0000  11.5 S   87.3 E   990         45
07 NOV 17 0600  11.6 S   87.5 E   997   45    30
07 NOV 17 1200  11.8 S   87.0 E   998         30
07 NOV 17 1800  11.6 S   86.8 E   999   35    30
07 NOV 18 0000  11.7 S   86.7 E   998         30
07 NOV 18 0600  12.3 S   86.7 E   998   35    30
07 NOV 18 1200  12.8 S   87.4 E   998         30
07 NOV 18 1800  12.5 S   87.8 E  1000   35    25  Locally 30 kts S semi
07 NOV 19 0000  14.0 S   88.1 E         30        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 19 0600  14.2 S   89.4 E         30
07 NOV 19 1200  14.5 S   89.2 E         30        SAB bulletin
07 NOV 19 1800  14.5 S   89.3 E         30        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 20 0000  14.9 S   89.9 E         30
07 NOV 20 0600  15.4 S   90.1 E         25
07 NOV 20 1200  13.9 S   90.2 E         25
07 NOV 20 1800  13.6 S   90.3 E         25
07 NOV 21 0000  13.4 S   91.6 E         20
07 NOV 21 0600  12.8 S   91.4 E         20
07 NOV 21 1200  12.5 S   90.8 E         25
07 NOV 21 1800  12.7 S   91.4 E         25
07 NOV 22 0000  12.7 S   91.2 E         20
07 NOV 22 0600  12.4 S   92.1 E         20
07 NOV 22 1200  12.5 S   92.7 E         20

Note: Both MFR and JTWC issued their final warnings on Lee-Ariel at
18/1800 UTC, but with quite different positions and headings.  MFR's
final position is noted above, and the system was given as moving ENE 
at 4 kts.  JTWC's 1800 UTC position was at 13.4S/87.8E, moving SE at 
5 kts.   I continued to track the remnants of Lee-Ariel via JTWC's 
satellite fix bulletins for several days because deep convection 
continued to flare up from time to time and there was a slight chance 
that regeneration could occur.  The system moved back into BoM Perth's 
AOR, and the STWO on 22 November indicated a moderate chance of 
regeneration, but this was reduced to 'low' the next day.  The remnant 
LOW remained quasi-stationary around 11S/90E through the 25th as it
slowly filled.

*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern
  Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
  The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from
  warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S.
  Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.    The center
  position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the
  Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the
  differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.


                             Systems Tracked
                             ---------------

   Severe Tropical Cyclone GUBA (02P)                  12 - 19 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: GUBA                  Cyclone Number: 02P     Basin: AUE
(Name assigned from Port Moresby, PNG, list of names)

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 12 0000   6.5 S  152.1 E         25        JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 0600   7.1 S  151.8 E         25                  "
07 NOV 12 1200   7.3 S  150.7 E         25                  "
07 NOV 12 1800   9.0 S  150.3 E         30        JTWC & SAB sat buls
07 NOV 13 0000  10.5 S  149.8 E  1000   30    30  First Brisbane warning
07 NOV 13 0600  11.0 S  149.2 E   999   30    30
07 NOV 13 1200  11.2 S  148.2 E   999   35    30
07 NOV 13 1800  11.2 S  147.2 E   998         30
07 NOV 14 0000  11.2 S  147.1 E   997   35    30
07 NOV 14 0600  10.8 S  146.5 E   995         35  Upgraded at 0300Z
07 NOV 14 1200  10.8 S  146.1 E   993   35    35
07 NOV 14 1800  10.5 S  146.0 E   995         35
07 NOV 15 0000  10.4 S  145.8 E   995   35    35
07 NOV 15 0600  10.5 S  146.1 E   990         40
07 NOV 15 1200  10.8 S  146.0 E   990   45    40
07 NOV 15 1800  10.8 S  146.2 E   990         40
07 NOV 16 0000  11.2 S  146.7 E   980   50    55
07 NOV 16 0600  11.4 S  146.7 E   970         65
07 NOV 16 1200  11.5 S  146.9 E   970   75    75
07 NOV 16 1800  11.6 S  146.9 E   970         75
07 NOV 17 0000  11.2 S  147.4 E   970   55    75
07 NOV 17 0600  11.4 S  147.5 E   970         75
07 NOV 17 1200  11.9 S  147.5 E   975   50    60
07 NOV 17 1800  12.0 S  147.1 E   985         50
07 NOV 18 0000  12.2 S  146.9 E   985   45    50
07 NOV 18 0600  12.5 S  146.4 E   990         40
07 NOV 18 1200  12.8 S  146.2 E   995   40    35
07 NOV 18 1800  12.6 S  145.8 E   995         35
07 NOV 18 2100  12.2 S  144.7 E   987         45
07 NOV 19 0500  11.8 S  144.7 E   990   35    40
07 NOV 19 1200  10.2 S  144.8 E   990         40
07 NOV 19 1800   9.9 S  145.0 E   995         35
07 NOV 19 2100   9.8 S  145.1 E   997         30

Note: The weak remnants of TC Guba continued to linger south of the Gulf
of Guinea for another day or so before dissipating.  The final position
available to the author was a SAB satellite fix bulletin at 20/0830 UTC
which placed the center near 10.1S/144.3E.

*************************************************************************

SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
  Wellington, New Zealand.  The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
  Hawaii.  The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
  those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
  Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
  or more.


                             Systems Tracked
                             ---------------

   Tropical Depression (03F)                           24 Nov - 02 Dec

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 03F

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 NOV 24 1800  16.6 S  165.5 E  1004         25
07 NOV 24 2100  16.3 S  165.0 E  1002         25
07 NOV 25 0600  17.0 S  165.5 E  1002         25
07 NOV 25 1800  18.5 S  168.5 E  1000         30  Periph. gales forecast
07 NOV 26 0000  18.5 S  168.5 E  1000         30  Periph. gales SE quad
07 NOV 26 0600  18.2 S  168.5 E  1001         25
07 NOV 26 1800  18.0 S  170.8 E  1001         25
07 NOV 26 2100  18.2 S  171.5 E  1002         25
07 NOV 27 0600  17.7 S  172.1 E  1002         25  Relocation
07 NOV 27 1800  17.1 S  174.5 E  1002         25
07 NOV 27 2100  16.3 S  174.8 E  1002         25
07 NOV 28 0600  15.7 S  178.0 E  1002         25
07 NOV 28 2100  15.0 S  179.5 E  1005         20
07 NOV 29 0600  15.0 S  179.5 E  1005         20
07 NOV 29 1800  17.0 S  173.0 W  1005         20  Major relocation
07 NOV 30 0600  15.0 S  169.0 W  1005         25
07 NOV 30 1800  17.0 S  168.0 W  1004         25
07 NOV 30 2100  16.4 S  166.5 W  1004         25
07 DEC 01 0600  17.1 S  164.2 W  1004         25
07 DEC 01 0800  17.6 S  164.4 W  1004         25
07 DEC 01 1800  19.7 S  161.2 W  1004         25
07 DEC 01 2100  19.5 S  161.5 W   999         25
07 DEC 02 0600  22.4 S  157.6 W  1000         25
07 DEC 02 1800  24.0 S  156.0 W  1008         25
07 DEC 02 2100  21.5 S  153.0 W  1008         25

Note: This system was a fairly long-lived and, most of the time, rather
nebulous depression which drifted across much of the South Pacific.
There were at least two significant relocations, which suggest that the
center was very difficult to follow, and it may well be that more than
one LLCC was identified as TD-03 by RSMC Nadi.   The depression went
through two periods when it became more organized: on 24-25 November 
when west of Fiji, and again around 1-2 December when well east of the 
Dateline.  

Dvorak ratings from CPHC and Brisbane reached T2.0/2.0 on the 24th and
25th, but JTWC's peak for this phase was T1.5/1.5.   The system became
weaker and drifted eastward for the next few days, with possibly a new
center forming on 29 November.  JTWC's Dvorak rating reached T2.5/2.5
at 1730 UTC on 1 December, and SAB had reached T2.5/2.5 by 01/0822 UTC
and peaked at T3.0/3.0 at 2022 UTC that same day.  So, based on a 1-min
avg MSW, this system was possibly a minimal tropical storm on the 1st
and 2nd of December.  No warnings were issued by JTWC for TD-03F.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

              !!!!!!  IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ  !!!!!!

     To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note
  at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks
  I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/
  advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone
  warning agencies around the world.   Users of these tracks should
  be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
  post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
  analysts at the several warning centers.

     For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
  cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
  the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
  Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
  tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
  North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:

     https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>


  SPECIAL NOTE:  Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
  and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
  websites:

    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>


  PREPARED BY:

  Gary Padgett              [email protected]


  SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:

  Michael V. Padua          [email protected] 
                            [email protected]

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

Document: trak0711.htm
Updated: 15th January 2008

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