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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 01:27:35 +1200
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From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: FLOODS - Canterbury New Zealand
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Howdy Folks
GREAT AT LAST - WEATHER HAPPENINGS IN CANTERBURY
I just thought that I would let you all know about the floods in Canterbury
on the east coast of the South Island. The rain has eased a bit but there
is still pockets of moisture around.
ALL rivers are awash as record rainfalls hit inland areas of the Canterbury
in the South Island of New Zealand. 24 rainfall totals of up to 240mm
reported in inland areas.( I omly got a beastly 46mm and Bob Crowder down
the road got 49.3mm here in ChCh)
Road and rail links cut.
Farms awash and people forced from homes due to rivers bursting their banks.
Civil defence called out.
No lives lost yet, well I hope not, human and animal.
Record snowfalls in the eastern Southern Alps. Winters worth in a 36 hour
period. Mt. Olympus get it biggest snowfall ever in a 24 hour period, 120cm
A good well developing low pressure system is to blame with a moist SE
airstream feeding into the the South Island from deformation cloud around
the NE part of the low.
More reports later as they come to hand.
I think you Australians will cop a similar system over the SE of your
country in the next couple of days, a well developing depression, cradled
by a bubble of high presuure that seems to be lost in the higher latitudes
below Tasmania. According to EC that high should move towards and NZ and
cradle that low pressure system over SE Austrlia.
John Gaul
NZ Thunderstorm Society
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Peoples lightning photos from Melb storm - 08 Aug
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 07:40:27 EST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Aug 2000 21:40:27.0892 (UTC) FILETIME=[1718F340:01C00A26]
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Hi everyone,
i think you have to adjust your technique for every situation as most of the
time they are different.ie different distances of storms,rain
inbedded,amount of activity.make up of lightning(cg's v. cc's etc),city/town
lights.so you either have to use what photographic knowledge you have and/or
guess-timate and learn more by experience.i wish i had more oppotunity to
learn as the last time we had any remotely photogenic lightning here(SW
Gippsland) was in summer 98-99!!!(yes very frustrating as Melb.has had lots
more!)here are a couple of photos from then.that summer we had 2 photogenic
lightning displays.....and none since!!!just distant rain inbedded flashes
occassionally,then it's all over.
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/weather/TM.lightning_wonny_creepers.99.jpg
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/weather/TM.lightning_skew-iff.jpg
or the page at
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/weather_thumb_page.htm
T.Middleton.
Anvil Industries
http://www.anvilindustries.com
Wildcoast Images
http://www.wildcoastimages.com
>From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Peoples lightning photos from Melb storm -
>08 Aug
>Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2000 20:24:39 +1000
>
>Hi all
>The best lightning shot i took was when i left my camera shutter open by
>mistake and i reached down to fish a new film out of my camera bag ,i only
>saw the flash reflect off the ground and the near by fence, but the photo
>came out great, never been able to repeat it. regards Clyve H
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, August 19, 2000 8:03 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Peoples lightning photos from Melb storm -
>08
>Aug
>
>
> > Love that crawler bolt one. Don't think my box brownie would take one
>that
> > good.
> >
> > Bussy
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Ben Jerrems <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, August 19, 2000 9:16 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Peoples lightning photos from Melb storm
>-
>08
> > Aug
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Hi Robert,
> > > Ben Jerrems (MSC),Saw your photo's, not to bad! Is it
>because
>of
> > > the sky being to bright? Try stopping it down to about F-11 if the
>bolts
> > > look close or F- 5.6, 4.5 if it seems distant!
> > > Good luck!!
> > >
> > > P.S. the crawler bolt is close! the other one is distant!
> > >
>________________________________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
>http://www.hotmail.com
> > >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Cu LATER......
________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2000 19:07:58 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Inbound/Outbound Radar patterns
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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David Findlay wrote:
> Okay.... I won't even pretend to understand all of that. Does this mean
that
> you can detect rotation or not? Anyway what I was looking for this for is
to
> possibly write some software. I am still figuring out the idea of
building a
> lightning tracker unit. I would write software that could take the gif
radar
> images then convert the reflectivity images to data which could be
> processed. It would combine this with data from the lightning tracker and
> then be able to detect the intensity of various storm cells. What I was
> looking for is a way to detect the inbound/outbound patterns that can
turn
> into tornadoes and display them. It would allow detection tornadoes from
> existing types of radar. But thinking about it wouldn't the BOM do this
if
> it was possible?
>
> Is it possible? Can you detect the inbound/outbounds?
I'm sorry for giving far too much info for the question you asked. I guess
in the most simple terms, the answer must be no. No you can't without a
great deal of ambiguity and a high failure rate and low probability of
detection.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 09:21:56 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Chase / NE NSW
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Hi all,
Jimmy and Mario have just (9.20am) left on a chase to the Hunter Valley
area. If you would to give them updates Jimmy's mobile is 0408020468.
In NE NSW, we have a lovely moisture haze, some accas passed through
earlier, and there are CJs along the Northern Tablelands. Temp up to 20
right now
regards, Michael
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges NSW http://australiasevereweather.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 09:02:09 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall <astroman at chariot.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: GOOD LUCK: To all chasing today!
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Hi all,
Just wishing everyone that is going out today, all the best with their
chases, lets hope you get some good developments through out the day.
I am taking down the remaining sections of a 10m tower that I have
purchased for my other hobby Amateur Radio. Hopefully all goes according to
plan.
So I will not be able to stick around and watch the action :(
Adelaide had some good developments yesterday with a couple of Cb's in the
north with a couple of them back building and only one that I could see
that produced an anvil although quite small, there were also some nice
looking Cu over the hills to the SE, hopefully we see the same today, but I
very much doubt it.
anyways goodluck!
Andrew Wall
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OBS/PICS: Brisbane weather
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 10:31:45 +1000
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Hi Everyone,
The sky looks excellent here this morning - these pics all taken in the last
15 mins
The sky here looks PRIMED and ready to explode! looking west
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/realtime/image1.JPG
The updrafts on a shower to my south
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/realtime/image2.JPG
Looking SSW
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/realtime/image3.JPG
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 12:34:39 -0700
From: Lindsay Pearce <writer at lisp.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: NSW snow Tuesday/Wednesday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yes, I'm interested in Laurier's reflections too. Also, the forecast for
tuesday night is for freshening NW winds, not typically associated with
much snow, I would think? Wouldn't we be getting rain at that stage,
before the really cold air arrives? Well, maybe Oberon might get snow
showers.
Laurier, Blair, David and others, what's your current opinion of this
approaching system? The weather forum on ski.com.au has some very BIG
predictions.
It's just that the Bom's forecasts look pretty conservative just now,
with "showers/snow" for Wednesday, at the 11:40 forecast for Cent.
Tablelands.
Cheers,
Lindsay P.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> The Bureau forecasts for Southern and Central Tablelands both now
> contain "snow to low levels" -- for Tuesday and Wednesday for the ST
> and overnight Tues/Wed into Wednesday for the CT. Not sure why the
> forecaster is going for this timing, with the EC, MRF and GASP not
> moving the really cold (sub 540 thickness) air into the east of the
> state until around the middle of Wednesday.
>
> Any ideas?
>
> Laurier
>
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 12:37:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: VIC Waterspouts
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Hi,
Jane just called to say not one, but THREE waterspouts have just been
observed by Tony Middleton from Wonthaggi !! Jane is out and about
checking the non-forecast CJs popping up around the Bay.
Check the local scale radar of the event here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200008200220.gif
regards, Michael
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges NSW http://australiasevereweather.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: "aussieweather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in the Hunter
Date: Mon, 28 Aug 2000 15:09:28 +1000
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<DIV><FONT size=2>James Harris is in Storm heaven!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>He can see many cells, some very nice updrafts and a couple of
overshooting tops.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>WIlliamtown local loop looks pretty nice at the moment. More
to follow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Daniel Weatherhead<BR><A
href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>============================<BR>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS<BR><A
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR>============================</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms in the Hunter
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 16:42:58 +1000
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<x-html>
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<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Was watching earlier. Some nice red bits on the
radar.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Bussy (getting nothing here)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au"
title=weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>Weatherhead</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com"
title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussieweather</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 28, 2000 3:09
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Storms in the
Hunter</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>James Harris is in Storm heaven!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>He can see many cells, some very nice updrafts and a couple
of overshooting tops.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>WIlliamtown local loop looks pretty nice at the moment. More
to follow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Daniel Weatherhead<BR><A
href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>============================<BR>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS<BR><A
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR>============================</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Glen O'Riley" <glen.oriley at linx.iwarp.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter Chase / NE NSW
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 18:04:35 +1000
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Just rang my grandmother in Krambach (about 20-40km SW of Taree) and she
reported that they had a minor thunderstorm sometime just before 17:30 this
afternoon. From the Wiillie local loop there doesn't appear to be too much
action. Would this be due to the far proximity from the radar?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, August 20, 2000 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Chase / NE NSW
> Hi all,
>
> Jimmy and Mario have just (9.20am) left on a chase to the Hunter Valley
> area. If you would to give them updates Jimmy's mobile is 0408020468.
>
> In NE NSW, we have a lovely moisture haze, some accas passed through
> earlier, and there are CJs along the Northern Tablelands. Temp up to 20
> right now
>
> regards, Michael
>
>
>
> ==================================================================
> Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> McLeans Ridges NSW http://australiasevereweather.com/
> Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> ==================================================================
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: NSW snow Tuesday/Wednesday
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 10:04:55 GMT
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Mmmm. This "cold outbreak" is looking curiouser and curiouser. As at
the morning runs today, the overseas models are starting to come into
line up to midweek. Unfortunately, the local product seems to have
gone AWOL, with no LAPS or GASP based on 00 UTC this morning as of 7pm
EST. So the following musing is based entirely on the latest EC, AVN,
NOGAPS and JCU output.
They all agree that by Wednesday a monumental block will have
developed with a high 600 to 800km S of Tasmania (EC has central
pressure 1035!!, AVN 1030, NOGAPS 1026 and JCU 1027) and a
fascinatingly broad area of low pressure over the entire SE mainland.
The EC has a 1003 low off Gabo, but the 1008 isobar encompasses all
NSW, Vic and much of the western Tasman. AVN and JCU are broadly
similar, while NOGAPS holds the low back with a more pronounced centre
near Mt Gambier.
The low is evident and substantial at all levels, and is vertically
stacked. The jet at 200hPa splits around the block, with the northern
limb over southern Qld and a substantial southern limb dipping down to
70S. There is no strong southerly jet -- as there was in the late May
outbreak, and which is characteristic of true polar outbreaks -- but
only a vast area of stagnant cold air over NSW and Victoria, with
500hPa temps of -30 to -33 over most of NSW, Vic and Tas.
The overseas models have been warming the lower levels on successive
runs -- AVN and NOGAPS both have 850 temps on Wednesday between -1 and
+3 over SE Australia, while JCU is between +1 and +3. Consequently,
thickness estimates have risen a bit on earlier ones -- EC and AVN
have all NSW/Vic/Tas/SE SA sub 540 but nowhere is sub 536; NOGAPS, for
once, is bolder, with the same area sub-540, but most of eastern NSW
sub-534, as less warm air is entrained into the held-back low.
Unusual weather breeds in unusual situations, and this is shaping up
to be one. The upper temps are certainly cold enough for low level
snow, but the more recent 850 temp estimates are making it less likely
below, say, 1000m. On the other hand, with the models maintaining
500hPa temps at <-30, iincreased storm activity seems likely, possibly
over an enormous area. I'm keenly awaiting the GASP, to see which way
it has headed.
Laurier
On Sun, 20 Aug 2000 12:34:39 -0700, Lindsay Pearce
<writer at lisp.com.au> wrote:
>Yes, I'm interested in Laurier's reflections too. Also, the forecast for
>tuesday night is for freshening NW winds, not typically associated with
>much snow, I would think? Wouldn't we be getting rain at that stage,
>before the really cold air arrives? Well, maybe Oberon might get snow
>showers.
>
>Laurier, Blair, David and others, what's your current opinion of this
>approaching system? The weather forum on ski.com.au has some very BIG
>predictions.
>
>It's just that the Bom's forecasts look pretty conservative just now,
>with "showers/snow" for Wednesday, at the 11:40 forecast for Cent.
>Tablelands.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Lindsay P.
>
>
>
>Laurier Williams wrote:
>>
>> The Bureau forecasts for Southern and Central Tablelands both now
>> contain "snow to low levels" -- for Tuesday and Wednesday for the ST
>> and overnight Tues/Wed into Wednesday for the CT. Not sure why the
>> forecaster is going for this timing, with the EC, MRF and GASP not
>> moving the really cold (sub 540 thickness) air into the east of the
>> state until around the middle of Wednesday.
>>
>> Any ideas?
>>
>> Laurier
>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.109.239.116]
From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Today's Hunter Chase...
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 09:51:01 GMT
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Aug 2000 09:51:01.0759 (UTC) FILETIME=[261E40F0:01C00A8C]
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Hi everyone,
After work I headed up to the Hunter since the storm situation
was looking pretty good. Unfortunately, I was on the trailing edge of the
activity and I thought that I had missed my chance of seeing anything
exciting - although some of the clouds were very spectacular. Upon reaching
Cessnock, I encountered a large Cu followed by an awsome CG directly ahead
of me!! Unfortunately it was the only one I saw.
I was at what was more or less the clearing edge of the trough and witnessed
a spectacular shower cascading from the base along with an almost complete
rainbow as it was illuminated by the afternoon sun with clear skies to the
west. All in all, worth it despite not seeing anything extraordinary.
Better than some previous "bust chases" anyway.
- Paul G.
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 20:06:59 +1000
From: MSC - Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: Temperature increase
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Evening all,
Temperature dropped from 8.6C at 6pm to 8.3C just after 7pm with a SSW
air of 1-2 kph - it's now (an hour later) gone up to 9.1C - wind is same
direction, same speed.
Dumb question...but why?????
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
Check out the MSC Cafe at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/forecasting.htm
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 21:18:53 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WEATHER: Temperature increase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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On Sun, 20 Aug 2000, MSC - Jane ONeill wrote:
> Evening all,
>
> Temperature dropped from 8.6C at 6pm to 8.3C just after 7pm with a SSW
> air of 1-2 kph - it's now (an hour later) gone up to 9.1C - wind is same
> direction, same speed.
>
> Dumb question...but why?????
>
Perhaps an increase in cloud cover overhead?
Cheers
--
Robert A. Goler
E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
--
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 21:06:28 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer <susanpud at healey.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Next Weekend
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Susan From Balmain
I am going to Victoria next weekend on Friday afternoon and leaving
Sunday afternoon and am staying at a Conference Centre near Woodend.
Anyone got any early warnings re weather conditions and just how cold it
is going to be. I need to work out if I have to include my thermal
underwear and sealskin boots :) Additionally, would you recommend
carrying a survival kit with a bottle of scotch and 3 bars of chocolate?
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:03:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Chase over
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
I would rate this chase as a good day thanks to one main region of activity
that developed. The chase was with Mario and Alex (his maiden chase).
Left home 9:30am and we were heading into the Hunter by 11:30am. At the end
of the Putty Road, there was a glaciating large cumulus or minor
cumulonimbus. This produced a shower of rain as we passed through. Cumulus
congestus developed during the early afternoon but it wasn't until around
1pm when the first main cells were passing through.
Most of the cumulonimbus were very shallow - looked like Victoria:) But
seriously, I made the mistake of going towards Muswellbrook as I thought
the largish cumulus line E and S of Singelton would not do anything. But by
the time we go to the Muswellbrook bypass, we decided it was a good idea to
stop. Wow. There were towers shooting up along that line and another was
also going up to its SW. So we headed back to Singelton. As we approached,
we observed a hail shaft and then an impressive lightning bolt out of the
side base of the main developing cumulonimbius. This cumulonimbus had
reasonable structure with the top half billowing backwards. Quite
impressive. We could see that the storms to the S had also been following
along the same line and the region in between was going up as well.
As we neared the Singelton Heights area, there was a nice dark flat base.
The lightning detector was very sharp and the activity to the SW and also
the main cell had lightning activity every 5 seconds or so. After I made
mistake two, we decided to head back and head towards Dungog. We were
attempting to get close if not into the region of light green tinge and
most probable hail. We ended up catching up but slightly passing to the
left of the main storm region and therefore missed the region of hail. I
was surprised at how active this storm remained. By the time we got a road
to go through it, it had weakened significantly - damn.
However, as was the case with this cell, the region to the east had
intensified and showed some impressive updraughts lit up by the sun. During
the evening, we got a message from James Harris asking us had we observed
the large storm off the coast. It was hidden but very impressive.
Hopefully, James got onto that one. We had to head home as Mario and Alex
had another hour to go after arriving at my place. I was impressed by this
chase but learned that chasing shallow cumulonimbus has it advantages and
disadvantages... If you go too far you can get out of their path quickly
but you can also get back in very quickly even though they looked distant.
I must admit, driving meant I had misjudged some of these cells. I also
have to take driving lessons. Alex, in the back seat, suggested as we left
the Pretol Station lookout near Singleton: "Umm, Jimmy you are on the wrong
side of the road". I think he almost left scud marks in his undies.
Anyway, an enjoyable Sunday drive.
Jimmy Deguara
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: NSW snow Tuesday/Wednesday
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:15:10 +1000
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Thanks Laurier for that analysis.. it will be interesting to see what
develops.
I just wish that some of that cold air in the south Tasman between Tasmania
and NZ South Island would move just a bit further north than progged. It
just clipped Hobart today (max of 8C) and looks like a great featureless
blob on the sat pics.
With the models showing this cold air field having some of the lowest
thicknesses (below 500dm) and 850 temps (<-28C) I can remember seeing in the
COLA MRF Australian map in a long time (albeit at its southern extremity),
the Invercargill sounding tomorrow will be an interesting sight. Some pretty
low-level snow for Otago coming up??
I guess that is what happens when you get a high parking itself in at 55+
south in the Southern Ocean in August.
Patrick
-----Original Message-----
From: Laurier Williams <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sunday, 20 August 2000 20:08
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: NSW snow Tuesday/Wednesday
>Mmmm. This "cold outbreak" is looking curiouser and curiouser. As at
>the morning runs today, the overseas models are starting to come into
>line up to midweek. Unfortunately, the local product seems to have
>gone AWOL, with no LAPS or GASP based on 00 UTC this morning as of 7pm
>EST. So the following musing is based entirely on the latest EC, AVN,
>NOGAPS and JCU output.
>
>They all agree that by Wednesday a monumental block will have
>developed with a high 600 to 800km S of Tasmania (EC has central
>pressure 1035!!, AVN 1030, NOGAPS 1026 and JCU 1027) and a
>fascinatingly broad area of low pressure over the entire SE mainland.
>The EC has a 1003 low off Gabo, but the 1008 isobar encompasses all
>NSW, Vic and much of the western Tasman. AVN and JCU are broadly
>similar, while NOGAPS holds the low back with a more pronounced centre
>near Mt Gambier.
>
>The low is evident and substantial at all levels, and is vertically
>stacked. The jet at 200hPa splits around the block, with the northern
>limb over southern Qld and a substantial southern limb dipping down to
>70S. There is no strong southerly jet -- as there was in the late May
>outbreak, and which is characteristic of true polar outbreaks -- but
>only a vast area of stagnant cold air over NSW and Victoria, with
>500hPa temps of -30 to -33 over most of NSW, Vic and Tas.
>
>The overseas models have been warming the lower levels on successive
>runs -- AVN and NOGAPS both have 850 temps on Wednesday between -1 and
>+3 over SE Australia, while JCU is between +1 and +3. Consequently,
>thickness estimates have risen a bit on earlier ones -- EC and AVN
>have all NSW/Vic/Tas/SE SA sub 540 but nowhere is sub 536; NOGAPS, for
>once, is bolder, with the same area sub-540, but most of eastern NSW
>sub-534, as less warm air is entrained into the held-back low.
>
>Unusual weather breeds in unusual situations, and this is shaping up
>to be one. The upper temps are certainly cold enough for low level
>snow, but the more recent 850 temp estimates are making it less likely
>below, say, 1000m. On the other hand, with the models maintaining
>500hPa temps at <-30, iincreased storm activity seems likely, possibly
>over an enormous area. I'm keenly awaiting the GASP, to see which way
>it has headed.
>
>Laurier
>
>
>
>On Sun, 20 Aug 2000 12:34:39 -0700, Lindsay Pearce
><writer at lisp.com.au> wrote:
>
>>Yes, I'm interested in Laurier's reflections too. Also, the forecast for
>>tuesday night is for freshening NW winds, not typically associated with
>>much snow, I would think? Wouldn't we be getting rain at that stage,
>>before the really cold air arrives? Well, maybe Oberon might get snow
>>showers.
>>
>>Laurier, Blair, David and others, what's your current opinion of this
>>approaching system? The weather forum on ski.com.au has some very BIG
>>predictions.
>>
>>It's just that the Bom's forecasts look pretty conservative just now,
>>with "showers/snow" for Wednesday, at the 11:40 forecast for Cent.
>>Tablelands.
>>
>>Cheers,
>>
>>Lindsay P.
>>
>>
>>
>>Laurier Williams wrote:
>>>
>>> The Bureau forecasts for Southern and Central Tablelands both now
>>> contain "snow to low levels" -- for Tuesday and Wednesday for the ST
>>> and overnight Tues/Wed into Wednesday for the CT. Not sure why the
>>> forecaster is going for this timing, with the EC, MRF and GASP not
>>> moving the really cold (sub 540 thickness) air into the east of the
>>> state until around the middle of Wednesday.
>>>
>>> Any ideas?
>>>
>>> Laurier
>>>
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From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OBS/PICS: *sigh*
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:21:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Hi Everyone,
Believe it or not today turned out to be a bit of a fizzer - no storms
visible from my location, although there was some great Cj's around at
times - and i have uploaded some pics of these
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recent-events-gallery/2000/20-08.html
The last picture is definately the pick of the bunch - best congestus i've
seen for quite some time - but it did nothing grrrrr
Wednesday looks interesting for us - fingers crossed
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:23:22 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WEATHER: Temperature increase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jane and all,
This is going to sound weird (then again I am weird :) But I know in
Brisbane, you sort of get a pseudo-NE'ly from a NW'ly if the wind is
blowing the right way. Basically, what I mean is that the air is coming
from the NE, yet from a NW'ly wind. This can happen if we have
gradient/geostrophic NE'lies over much of the area to our north, but
then due to pressure changes it swings back around to the NW, and we get
a NW'ly with NE'ly properties.
Perhaps something similar happenered, where the upstream wind direction
changed and tapped into some warmer air?
Just bouncing ideas...
Anthony Cornelius
MSC - Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> Evening all,
>
> Temperature dropped from 8.6C at 6pm to 8.3C just after 7pm with a SSW
> air of 1-2 kph - it's now (an hour later) gone up to 9.1C - wind is same
> direction, same speed.
>
> Dumb question...but why?????
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Check out the MSC Cafe at
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/forecasting.htm
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OBS/PICS: *sigh*
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:21:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Hi Everyone,
Believe it or not today turned out to be a bit of a fizzer - no storms
visible from my location, although there was some great Cj's around at
times - and i have uploaded some pics of these
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recent-events-gallery/2000/20-08.html
The last picture is definately the pick of the bunch - best congestus i've
seen for quite some time - but it did nothing grrrrr
Wednesday looks interesting for us - fingers crossed
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.7]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC Waterspouts
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 22:39:33 EST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Aug 2000 12:39:33.0779 (UTC) FILETIME=[B15A0E30:01C00AA3]
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thanks Michael!
it was actually one spout followed by 2 funnels/lowerings(sorry for any
disappointment to anyone)(damn dodgey mobile coverage!) all in about 20min
and over Bass Strait.
still heaps of fun though!
also thanks Jane!!
>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: VIC Waterspouts
>Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 12:37:21 +1000
>
>Hi,
>
>Jane just called to say not one, but THREE waterspouts have just been
>observed by Tony Middleton from Wonthaggi !! Jane is out and about
>checking the non-forecast CJs popping up around the Bay.
>
>Check the local scale radar of the event here:
>http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200008200220.gif
>
>regards, Michael
>
>
> ==================================================================
> Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> McLeans Ridges NSW http://australiasevereweather.com/
> Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> ==================================================================
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2000 23:23:50 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OBS/PICS: *sigh*
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
The sky looked very promising and "explosive" in the morning, DP's were
creeping up to around 14-15C, which was quite significant given the cold
air over us. But at around 11:30am things stabilized somewhat, soon
after though more CJ's developed to W, SW and S - I went to Boonah to
see what I'd be able to find. Things kept going up and down...but I was
very dismayed when I went to open the car door after being at Boonah for
40mins and got a static shock! I immediately decided to head east, as
nothing was going to happen with such little moisture. Also, an
interesting area of development was to the SE, and interesting CJ's to
the NE. Unfortunately, it all fell apart. Back in Brisbane, I recorded
a DP of 17C! But within an hour, the W'lies came through and the FP was
now -4C!!!
Had we had the moisture, it would have been a fantastic day - dam those
W'ly winds, and winter troughs!
Wednesday could run into the same problem as today, but no doubt as
usual I'll be trying to shuffle my week around to get as much time free
as possible on Wednesday.
Anthony Cornelius
Ben Quinn wrote:
>
> Hi Everyone,
>
> Believe it or not today turned out to be a bit of a fizzer - no storms
> visible from my location, although there was some great Cj's around at
> times - and i have uploaded some pics of these
>
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recent-events-gallery/2000/20-08.html
>
> The last picture is definately the pick of the bunch - best congestus i've
> seen for quite some time - but it did nothing grrrrr
>
> Wednesday looks interesting for us - fingers crossed
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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